第一章
【Macro Background】
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Background 1.
【The Mastermind's Set Goals and Potential Weaknesses】
Based on the current storyline, the Mastermind's set goals are quite clear:
——“To trigger and facilitate continuous instances of mutual killing between students.”
However, a crucial issue remains: credibility.
【The Most Critical Issue The Mastermind Will Face】
The Mastermind's set goals, from the very beginning, were laid out openly: To trigger and facilitate continuous instances of mutual killing between students.
Yet in implementing this concept of “the mutual killing game”, the Mastermind inevitably faces an inescapable ultimate question:
【—Why would the group listen to, let alone believe, a single word spoken by an armed criminal who has kidnapped them?】
【The Mastermind's Promise and Conditions—How to Gain Freedom】
Condition One: Kill someone.
Condition Two: Successfully conceal your identity as the murderer during the Class Trial.
Condition Three: Lead the group to an incorrect voting outcome.
Only when all three conditions are fully met does it constitute “victory”/ ‘survival’ under the Mastermind's “mutual killing game rules.”
The Mastermind promises the killer will be released upon victory.
But what reason do the students have to believe this promise?
【Why Promises Made by the Mastermind Lack Credibility】
Now, let's first examine the usual conditions that enhance the credibility of a person's promise.
1. Institutional (e.g., law) guarantees and binding, explicit contracts.
2. The promisee and promisor (in terms of power/status/position, etc.) are equal, or the promisee surpasses the promisor.
3. The promisor inherently possesses an authoritative identity capable of persuasion.
4. The promisor has a history of keeping promises.
5. The promisor and promisee share aligned interests.
Then, let us evaluate this against the objective plot reality we know after the prologue concludes.
1. Third-party system (such as a legal system) guarantees and enforces explicit contracts.
All rules are established verbally by the Mastermind, with no constraints from any third-party system and no explicit contracts of any kind.
2. The promisor and promisee (in terms of power/status/position, etc.) are equal, or the promisee surpasses the promisor.
Power: The Mastermind possesses instant-kill force (firearms), while the student group is unarmed.
Status: The Mastermind is the captor, while the student group is the kidnapping victim.
Position: The Mastermind controls the enclosed detention facility, while the student group is the detainees.
3. The promisor inherently possesses an identity capable of exerting persuasive authority.
The Mastermind's identity: Armed, violent kidnappers coercing a group into committing inhumane acts of mutual killing.
4. The promisor has a history of keeping their word.
The Mastermind lures the group into participating in the mock class trial through wordplay (“leave this place”) and threats, tricking them into misinterpreting it as an actual promise to restore freedom, only to immediately retract the commitment.
5. The promisor and promisee share aligned interests.
The Mastermind's objective: “To trigger and facilitate continuous instances of mutual killing between students.”
See? The Mastermind 【only needs the murder to occur】 to achieve their stage objective.
【That is, once the murderer fulfills condition one—“Kill someone”—the Mastermind's interests no longer align with the murderer's (e.g., if the murderer's goal is escape).】
The above:
The Mastermind's promises are not backed by any institutional guarantees (such as laws) or explicit contractual obligations.
There exists an absolute disparity in power/status/position between the promised party (students) and the promising party (the Mastermind).
The Mastermind's identity is that of armed, violent kidnappers who coerce groups into committing inhumane acts of mutual killing.
The Mastermind has a history of breaking promises.
The interests of the Mastermind diverge significantly from those of the killers (e.g., if the goal is escape).
The Mastermind proposed three “conditions for victory,” promising freedom to the ‘winner’/“survivor” upon fulfillment.
Here is the quote:
Condition One: Kill someone.
Condition Two: Successfully conceal your identity as the murderer during the class trial.
Condition Three: Lead the group to an incorrect voting outcome.
However, there is absolutely no guarantee or credibility that the Mastermind will honor their promise.
To put it bluntly—once Condition One (murder) is fulfilled, the ‘player’ who chose to kill becomes a disposable pawn to the Mastermind.
Once their final utility is drained during the class trial, the Mastermind has no reason to continue caring about the killer’s interests or rights (e.g., if their goal is escape).
【Note: Regarding the so-called “special conditions”】
There lies a hidden yet crucial point that must be addressed during strategic deduction.
The Mastermind stated, “The killing game will end when there are only two students left.”
Note the phrasing. He said “end,” not “release the survivors.”
Students might subjectively interpret this wordplay as meaning the “end” they understand, but “end” is an ambiguous term that can carry multiple meanings.
Moreover, logically speaking, why would the Mastermind release the final two?
Once only two remain, the mutual killing game loses its meaning. What objective, practical reason would the Mastermind have to guarantee their survival?
As long as the group retains basic reality awareness and situational judgment, logic inevitably leads to this conclusion.
【Key Supplement】
The above discussion, nevertheless, still relies on one assumption.
——The Mastermind will indeed hold the Class Trial as scheduled after the murder occurs.
[Same issue: The Mastermind has zero credibility.]
From a group perspective, why should any statement from an armed criminal that has already broken his word—one possessing absolute coercive power—be tacitly accepted as established fact and credible rule?
What guarantee is there that the Mastermind won't suddenly execute everyone the next second, or renege again after the murder?
This is the difference between 【Set Goals】 and 【Actual Variables】.
When the Mastermind claims he “wants the student group to kill each other,” we can only assume his goal is indeed “To trigger and facilitate continuous instances of mutual killing between students.” Thus, deducing that he needs to hold Class Trials.
However, from the students' perspective and position, there is no evidence or means to guarantee that it is truly the Mastermind's objective.
—If you were kidnapped, and the violent abductors suddenly announced they'd hold a murder game—promising release if you killed someone and avoided capture—would your first thought be “How can I win this killing game?”
What if they're unpredictable psychopaths? What if they promise today, then execute everyone tomorrow?
In situations where power is absolutely unequal, the other party harbors explicit malice, and stances are irreconcilable, any promises, agreements, or information offered by the dominant side must be viewed through the lens of potential aggression and extreme skepticism.
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However, since we currently have no other contradictory information, we have no choice but to work under the premise that “the Mastermind indeed intends to hold a murder game” , otherwise we would forever cycle and waste energy within an infinite realm of possibilities that remain unverifiable/falsifiable, leading to decision paralysis.
The characters face the same circumstances.
Persisting in debating unverifiable/unfalsifiable claims about the Mastermind is unproductive and only leads to exhaustion.
We can only proceed based on current information (the Mastermind's statement about holding the game) as a working hypothesis for premise-based deduction, while mentally preparing for unexpected variables.
Note: The “premise-based Deduction” does not mean ignoring the possibility that the Mastermind's stated Set Goal is false. It means the primary premise for deduction is “the Mastermind genuinely intends to hold a murder game.”
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【The Mastermind's Potential Vulnerability—Dependence on the Framework】
However, this very aspect also constitutes the mastermind's weakness.
The mastermind's fatal weakness lies in the fact that, regardless of how overwhelming their advantage may be, achieving their set goals must, at the very least, formally and superficially depend on the group's active participation (actively engaging in mutual killing).
This is precisely why the “mutual killing game” framework exists—it serves as the essential link and scaffolding the Mastermind must rely on to bridge the gap between its “intentions” and the achievement of its “objectives.”
By packaging murder as a “game,” presenting themselves as “neutral hosts,” and disguising absolute, one-sided coercive violence as “rules governed by fairness,” they dismantle the group’s rational judgment, ultimately inducing the group to voluntarily achieve the Mastermind’s Set Goals.
Thus, the primary battlefield is not physical warfare but psychological and cognitive warfare—and currently, physical warfare holds no prospect of winning—where threats to their framework pose the greatest danger.
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Background 2. [Current State of Group Patterns]
Before proceeding, there is one crucial point we must first note.
[Scene - End of Prologue]
Previous reference:
[——
[Eloise begins to cry]
【After Wolfgang's first speech】
(Kai: Y-Yeah... That's totally right! We're, like, super boring people. We don't have what it takes to do something like this!)
(Toshiko: My heart is terribly soft. Softer than the most delicious piece of mochi. When I see a fly in my room, I catch the poor thing in a jar and return her to nature... My mochi heart would melt otherwise!)
【After the Mastermind Speech】:
(Eloise: A-All of us will be executed!? That's not fair!)
(Ulysses: T-That's insane... You're treating us like pigs to slaughter!)
(Damon[inner thoughts]: Out of the sixteen people here... only two would be allowed to survive?)
(Desmond: Two people... that's hardly better than if someone gets away with murder...)
The students began to panic, their thinking influenced by the situation, and started to unconsciously follow the line of reasoning provided by Tozu's words—that is, beginning to consider the logic of mutual killing and its possibility as a reasonable option.
[Grace's physical counterattack, the Mastermind fires a warning shot]
【After Wolfgang's Second Speech】:
(Grace: H-He's right! No matter how weird these guys are, they are talented. Do you really think an Ultimate would fall for this bullshit?)
(Diana: T-That's right! My friends and I have too much to live and too much to achieve! We won't throw all that away for your killing game!)
(Desmond: We're all going to escape... We have to!)
(Toshiko: Never underestimate the strength of human connection. I'm quite familiar with this idea.)
(Jean: What kind of captain would I be if I can't even handle a small crew of fifteen?)
After the two speeches, the group immediately responded positively. Some members of the group began to internalize Wolfgang's logic, and the silent members did not raise any objections. The group began to gradually form a strong consensus against the enemy and a will to survive.
【After Damon and Eva's Speech】:
Eva:
(Ingrid: ... That's enough. Wolfie's done nothing wrong. He's giving all of us a vote of confidence.)
(Eloise: Um... Yes... It's something we all need.)
Damon:
(Ulysses: Don't you mean “rest of us”? You're an Ultimate too...)
(Grace: Yeah, what the hell makes you so special?)
(Cassidy: Is that really what happened? I remember all of us helping out!)
(Jett: Yo, I see what's going on. You think you're better than us just 'cause you can use words that nobody understands? Well, that kinda stuff is relative. Like... tell me what a dragster is. Do you know?)
(Toshiko: Hmph! Watch your step, lest you trip and fall from the unparalleled heights of vanity!)
(Ingrid: I'm disappointed in you... How are ya so concerned about makin' yourself look good when we're in the middle of a death game?)
(Diana: Still... We're not going to kill anyone, right guys?) (No response)
Multiple group members exhibit obvious discomfort and aversion, hostility toward the outsider enemy begins to turn inward, and the newly formed, fragile sense of unity begins to crumble.
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【Group Cognitive Progression】
Denial of the Mastermind path → Support/internalization of the Wolfgang path → Consideration/internalization of the Mastermind path → Denial of the Mastermind path → Support/internalization of the Wolfgang path → Renewed suspicion of the Wolfgang path.
【Group Emotional Progression】
Signs of panic → Brief stability → Panic-induced wavering → Resolute fervor → aversion and anger → Self-doubt.
Have you noticed how unstable groups are, how easily influenced and manipulated?
In just a few back-and-forth words—
The group's cognitive stance did a complete 180, shifting from considering the anti-human path of the Mastermind to supporting the collective resistance path of Wolfgang, then to doubting the collective resistance path of Wolfgang.
The group's emotions shifted at least five or six times drastically within a very short period, each time taking a direction completely different from the previous one.
To put it simply:
A group in a state of anarchy, highly vulnerable, is like a large piece of unguarded meat in a famine.
What about a group that is not only in a state of anarchy but also so easily influenced and manipulated in both cognition and emotion?
—To put it bluntly, at the level of strategic decision-making, this group cannot be trusted.
After observing the above objective feedback, the Action Implementer (whoever they may be) must absolutely abandon any hope of luck.
Groups suddenly incited and exploited by external enemies and internal separatists, sliding into mob mentality due to panic and imbalance, leading to complete collapse and riots; rapid internal loss of control triggering an unstoppable cycle of self-destruction...
This is not a group that allows the Action Implementer (whoever they may be) the freedom to choose a strategy or possess operational space.
It is an emotional powder keg ready to explode at any moment due to unforeseen factors, a potential gun barrel that could flip their stand at any instant, turning the very Action Implementers they supported a second ago into targets for elimination.
Any moderately complex strategy, any introduction of new unstable variables, any recurrence of high-pressure scenarios—all carry an extremely high risk of immediately leading to irreversible outcomes.
All strategic decisions and considerations must be based on and premised upon this known information.
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Background 3. [Current Status of the Action Implementer]
[Action Implementer's Existing Resources ( Regardless of Who It Is)]
Restrained by an electric shock watch that can instantly render them unconscious and incapacitated, weapons are scarce, with extremely high acquisition barriers and restrictions. Even if certain members possess greater individual physical strength, they are powerless against the instant-kill capabilities of the Mastermind and the collective force of the other 15 individuals—effectively equivalent to zero.
— Virtually no military resources, unable to protect themselves, facing imminent death risk at any moment.
This is a closed space and a lawless territory. The only visible authority is the mastermind (a clearly malicious enemy), whose system is unilaterally dictated.
— Lacking inherent institutional protection or legitimate authorization, they may at any time be deemed an illegal disruptive force by the group for unpredictable reasons and marked by the mastermind as a priority elimination target.
All individuals are strangers, lacking any emotional basis or shared experiential basis.
— Zero relational basic, negative credibility basic (due to being compelled to engage in mutual killing) — the group may at any time, for various unpredictable reasons, reverse their stance and characterize the Action Implementer as malicious and threatening.
Author's Summary:
All strategy formulation and discussion must be based on the above objective constraints.
— that is, starting from:
“I have zero military strength, possess no authority, have no one I can trust, and am trapped alongside fifteen strangers who could turn on me at any moment in a lawless territory ruled by an absolutely malicious power.”
——Starting from this origin point.
Any simulation that ignores this fundamental starting point belongs to the realm of mental fantasy and loses all strategic meaning.
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Background 4. [Rule Trap]
Even if this information appears later in the process, its critical importance necessitates mentioning it upfront.
The “mutual killing rule” promulgated by Tozu does not contain a clause stating that only the first killer counts.
This implies that if a group genuinely accepts the framework of a mutual killing game, there will be no constraints from rule-based cost-benefit calculations (since someone is already dead, killing again offers no benefit) to restrain them.
The worst-case outcomes would not be “one member killed and one murderer executed,” but rather multiple members consecutively killing each other, triggering a cycle of internal collapse and potentially sliding directly into collective internal slaughter.
Under these conditions, any factor capable of triggering a chain-reaction collapse and mass panic carries a high risk of igniting the fuse for snowballing destruction.
In every strategy deduction conducted after the promulgation of the rules, we must take this into account.
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Background 5. [Objective Limitations]
Based on currently available information, this work is set in a semi-realistic world where the characters (the group) possess virtually no genuine control over resources—any supplies temporarily permitted by the mastermind are merely extensions of the mastermind's power and do not truly belong to the group.
Therefore, during deduction, certain Set Goals and action choices will be automatically abandoned or excluded as they fall within the realm of fantasy.
Including but not limited to:
Requiring supernatural abilities.
Requiring overwhelming military force.
Requiring complete control over the Mastermind.
Requiring complete control over the group.
Requiring complete control over the environment.
——etc.