Understanding China's Relations with Japan, the US, and Europe Through the "Family Estate" Lens

# The Second Son's Three Neighbors: Understanding China's Relations with Japan, the US, and Europe Through the "Family Estate" Lens

## Prologue

In my previous article, I used the "grand family estate" (大宅门) metaphor to explain the relationships among four Chinese societies: Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Many readers asked: what about China's relationships with the outside world—Japan, the United States, and Europe?

Today, we broaden our perspective and continue using the "family estate" framework to tell the story of the second son (Mainland China) and his three important "neighbors."

These three neighbors are fundamentally different: Japan is a distant cousin, the United States is the nouveau riche from the New World, and Europe represents declining old-money aristocracy. Their relationships with China reflect the deeper logic of today's global order.

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## I. Japan: The Distant Cousin Who Once Followed, Then Bullied, Now Anxious

### A Thousand Years of Teacher-Student Bonds

If Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are "one extended family," then Japan is a "distant cousin"—related by blood, but living in a different compound.

In the 7th century AD, Japan sent envoys across treacherous seas at great risk to themselves. Why? To learn. They learned Chinese characters, the legal code system, Buddhism, architecture, and poetry. Back then, China was like Silicon Valley today—where the world's brightest minds wanted to be.

There was no "wolf warrior diplomacy," no "China is awesome" propaganda, yet Japan came to learn voluntarily.

Why? Because the Tang Dynasty was genuinely advanced. Not through military threats, but through the allure of civilization. Like a truly excellent teacher who doesn't need to force students to attend class—students come of their own accord.

This relationship lasted over a thousand years. Though Japan maintained its independence, it always identified with the "Chinese cultural sphere." This was China's most successful "soft power export" in history.

### The Shocking Role Reversal

1894, the First Sino-Japanese War. For the first time, the "student" defeated the "teacher."

The shock to China was no less than if Americans today discovered China's GDP had surpassed theirs. A millennium of psychological superiority collapsed instantly. Chinese began to reflect: Why did we fall behind?

The answer was simple: Japan pursued the Meiji Restoration and proactively learned from the West; China remained in seclusion, believing itself the "Celestial Empire."

In the first half of the 20th century, roles completely reversed. Japan's full-scale invasion of China caused deep trauma. This history remains a wound in Sino-Japanese relations to this day.

### Post-War Reversal Again

After World War II, Japan was defeated but, with American support, achieved economic takeoff and became a developed nation. China, meanwhile, endured civil war, the Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution, not beginning reform and opening until 1978.

During this period, roles reversed once more: China sent students to study in Japan, and Japan provided economic aid (ODA). The "teacher" became the "student" again.

Entering the 21st century, as China's economic output surpassed Japan's (2010), the scales tipped again. But this time, Japan hasn't shown the "heartfelt respect" of the past.

### Today's Impasse

Japan's anxiety stems from two sources:

First, economic stagnation. The "Lost 30 Years"—watching China rapidly catch up and even surpass them is psychologically difficult to accept.

Second, security concerns. China's growing military power and escalating Taiwan tensions worry Japan about being drawn in. This is why Sanae Takaichi said "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency."

China's dissatisfaction also stems from two sources:

First, historical issues. Japan's insufficiently sincere attitude toward its invasion history—visiting Yasukuni Shrine, revising textbooks.

Second, geopolitics. Japan closely follows the US, opposing China at every turn on issues like the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and Taiwan.

### The Deeper Problem

Why was ancient Japan willing to learn from China, but not today?

Because ancient China was not just economically powerful, but more importantly:

- Its institutions were advanced (civil service exams were fairer than hereditary succession)

- Its culture was brilliant (poetry and literature were aspirational)

- Its society was open (Chang'an had merchants from all nations)

- It didn't rely on force (primarily cultural exchange)

Today's China, though the world's second-largest economy:

- Has a political system not recognized by others (one-party state vs. democracy)

- Has weak cultural exports (soft power far behind Japan and Korea)

- Has aggressive diplomatic methods (wolf warrior diplomacy causes backlash)

- Has military expansion that concerns others (South China Sea artificial islands, frequent military exercises)

What Japan thinks: "I acknowledge your economy is strong, but I don't respect you. Because in terms of institutions, culture, and values, you haven't surpassed me."

This is why, despite China's GDP being four times Japan's, Japan doesn't "respect" China. Because respect isn't bought with GDP figures—it's earned through institutional advancement, cultural appeal, and diplomatic wisdom.

The Tang Dynasty had no GDP statistics, yet Japan voluntarily sent envoys. Now China has the world's second-largest GDP, but how many countries genuinely want to learn?

This is the most profound contrast.

---

## II. The United States: The Nouveau Riche from the New World, Now the Global Hegemon

### Not Family

If Japan is still a "distant cousin," the United States isn't even a relative—just the richest person from another village with whom you have business dealings.

No blood ties, no cultural bonds, only interests. This is the essence of Sino-American relations.

### From Strangers to "Cake Dividers"

In the late 19th century, America came to China not as an invader (though it did participate in the Eight-Nation Alliance), but as an advocate of the "Open Door Policy"—everyone shares China's cake together.

Compared to Britain, France, Russia, and Japan directly seizing territory and demanding reparations, America appeared more "civilized." Later using Boxer Indemnity funds to sponsor Chinese students and establish Tsinghua University gave Chinese the impression: "Though also a great power, relatively reasonable."

### The Brief WWII Alliance

During the War of Resistance Against Japan, America aided China (Flying Tigers, Hump Route), not because they loved China, but because Japan was a common enemy. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

This was the best period in Sino-American relations, but purely based on interests.

### Cold War Opposition and Reconciliation

After 1949, China and America became enemies, fighting directly on the Korean Peninsula. The propaganda then: "American imperialism is a paper tiger."

Nixon's 1972 visit to China—why the sudden reconciliation? Because there was a new common enemy: the Soviet Union. China and the USSR had a falling out, and America wanted to use China to balance Soviet power. Still interests.

After Reform and Opening, America helped China modernize: providing technology, markets, and investment. China's economy took off, becoming the "world's factory."

Why did America help China? Two reasons:

1. To counter the Soviet Union (Cold War needs)

2. Believing that once China became wealthy, it would democratize (the "peaceful evolution" fantasy)

At that time, China was extremely friendly toward America. "Sino-American friendship" wasn't a slogan but genuine. Students desperately wanted to study in America, thinking everything American was good.

### End of the Honeymoon

1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. The common enemy disappeared, and the foundation of Sino-American relations shook.

The 1989 Tiananmen incident, 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, 1999 embassy bombing in Belgrade, 2001 South China Sea collision... the rifts grew larger.

But economic ties deepened. China joined the WTO (2001), becoming America's largest trading partner. Chinese-made goods filled American supermarkets, and China bought US Treasury bonds supporting American deficits.

Politically increasingly opposed, economically increasingly dependent. This contradiction persisted until 2008.

### From G2 to Confrontation

The 2008 financial crisis hit America hard while China remained relatively stable. China began gaining confidence: "The East is rising, the West is declining."

2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan's, becoming the world's second. America began to truly worry.

Obama proposed the "Pivot to Asia," beginning strategic containment of China.

Trump took office and tore off the facade: trade war, tech war, ideological war. Positioning China as a "strategic competitor."

Biden is even tougher, uniting allies for comprehensive containment of China: chip bans, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Taiwan issues, human rights issues.

China's response: "Looking the world in the eye," "East rising, West declining," "wolf warrior diplomacy," "American hegemony is declining."

Both sides believe the other wants to destroy them.

### The Thucydides Trap

This is the classic "Thucydides Trap": the hegemon sees the rising power as a threat; the rising power feels suppressed by the hegemon and resents it.

This situation has occurred multiple times in history:

- Britain vs. Germany → WWI

- America vs. Soviet Union → Cold War

- America vs. Japan → Trade war (1980s, Japan backed down)

Now: America vs. China → ?

The key question: Can China and America avoid the historical pattern of "power inevitably leads to hegemony"?

### Why Sino-American Relations Are Hardest to Resolve

Because:

1. No cultural bonds. At least China and Japan share characters and Confucianism; China and America are completely different worlds.

2. Institutional opposition. Democracy vs. authoritarianism—this isn't an economic issue, it's about values.

3. Zero-sum game. There can only be one global hegemon—this is a structural contradiction.

4. Geographically distant but interests clash everywhere. The Pacific is wide, but in the era of globalization, collisions happen everywhere.

China's grievances against America:

- Why do you say your system is "universal values"?

- You've done many bad things too (Iraq, Afghanistan)

- Why can you be the hegemon but I can't rise?

America's concerns about China:

- Your system is authoritarian and will export autocracy

- You don't follow international rules (South China Sea, trade)

- Your military expansion threatens allies

Neither can convince the other.

### A Harsh Reality

No matter how China explains "peaceful rise," America won't believe it.

Because in America's view, the rise of an authoritarian state is itself a threat.

Unless China changes its system, America will never be at ease.

And China considers its system a "core interest," never to be compromised.

Therefore, Sino-American confrontation is structural, long-term, and irreconcilable.

This isn't about any particular leader—it's a fundamental conflict between two systems.

---

## III. Europe: Declining Old Aristocracy, Wanting Money and Face

### Former Invaders

If America is "nouveau riche," then Europe is "old-money aristocracy"—cultured, historically powerful, now declined.

In the 19th century, European powers (Britain, France, Germany, Russia) invaded China, signed unequal treaties, and burned the Old Summer Palace. This is China's "century of humiliation."

But Europe differs from Japan: Japan conducted full-scale invasion; Europe was "civilized" plunderers—superficially following rules (international law, treaties) while actually bullying weak nations.

### Post-War Decline

Two world wars devastated Europe. America rose, and Europe became second-tier.

During the Cold War, Europe split: Western Europe followed America, Eastern Europe followed the Soviet Union.

After the 1991 Soviet collapse, Europe unified (EU), wanting to restore its glory. But its power was far diminished.

### Post-Reform and Opening Honeymoon

China's Reform and Opening, Europe saw huge business opportunities.

- Germany sold cars, machinery

- France sold aircraft, luxury goods

- Britain provided financial services

China needed European technology, Europe needed China's market. The bilateral "honeymoon" lasted two to three decades.

Europe's attitude toward China then: turned a blind eye. Human rights issues? Mentioned but didn't affect business.

### Cooling Relations

After the 2010s, Europe's attitude began changing:

Economically:

- Realized China wasn't just a market but also a competitor

- Chinese companies acquired European firms (technology transfer concerns)

- Huawei 5G controversy (security issues)

Politically:

- Xinjiang, Hong Kong issues

- Europe increasingly criticized China's human rights

- China counter-sanctioned European parliamentarians

Geopolitics:

- After Russia-Ukraine war (2022), Europe relies more on America

- Following America in being tough on China

2020, the China-EU investment agreement was about to be signed but was frozen by the European Parliament. Reason: human rights issues.

### Europe's Dilemma

Europe's attitude toward China can be summarized in two words: wanting everything.

Wants:

- 💰 China's market and money (especially German auto industry)

Also wants:

- 🎭 Moral high ground (criticizing China's human rights)

Still wants:

- 🛡️ America's security protection (NATO)

Even wants:

- 🗽 "Strategic autonomy" (not wanting to be led by America)

These four goals contradict each other:

- Want money, don't criticize too harshly

- Want moral high ground, don't be too greedy for money

- Want independence, don't rely on America

- Want security, must follow America

Result: Wanting everything, doing nothing well.

### China's Strategy

China attempts to "divide" America and Europe:

- Court major powers like Germany and France (economic interests)

- Court Central and Eastern European countries (16+1 mechanism)

- Punish small countries (Lithuania, Czech Republic)

But effects are limited. Because:

1. After Russia-Ukraine war, Europe more united around America

2. China unwilling to compromise on institutional issues

3. China's "wolf warrior diplomacy" offends Europe

### Europe vs. America: The Difference

America toward China:

- Core is hegemonic competition

- Must contain China's rise

- At any cost

Europe toward China:

- Core is values + economic interests

- Want money but also face

- Don't want war

Therefore:

- America's China hardline: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

- Europe's China hardline: ⭐⭐⭐

Europe isn't monolithic. Germany is pro-business, France wants "strategic autonomy," Eastern Europe is more anti-communist. China has opportunities to divide them.

But reality is: the tougher China gets, the more Europe unites toward America.

### Historical Irony

19th century: Europe was powerful, invaded China.

21st century: China is powerful, Europe relatively declined.

But China hasn't "retaliated" against Europe, only demands "equal treatment."

Yet Europe still looks down, criticizing China using "values."

This upsets China: "You also have colonial history, why lecture me? Double standards!"

But Europe's logic: "Past mistakes don't negate current values. We've reflected on colonialism—have you?"

This is the root of China-Europe contradictions: comprehensive conflicts over history, institutions, and values.

---

## IV. Comparing the Three Neighbors

### Relationship Nature

| Neighbor | Relationship | Emotional Foundation | Core Contradiction |

|----------|-------------|---------------------|-------------------|

| Japan | Distant cousin | Love-hate | History + security + psychology |

| US | Stranger hegemon | Pure interests | Hegemonic competition |

| Europe | Old aristocracy | Complex | Values + economy |

### Evolution of Attitudes Toward China

Japan:

- Ancient: Student → Teacher

- Modern: Invader → Defeated

- Contemporary: Aid provider → Competitor

America:

- WWII: Ally

- Early Cold War: Enemy

- Late Cold War: Strategic partner

- Now: Strategic competitor

Europe:

- Modern: Invader

- Cold War: Divided (East/West)

- Post-Reform and Opening: Cooperative partner

- Now: Systemic competitor

### Ranking by Hardline Degree

China Hardline Degree:

1. United States ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (comprehensive confrontation)

2. Japan ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (closely following US)

3. Europe ⭐⭐⭐ (criticism but still wants profits)

Why this order?

- America: Hegemony threatened, life or death

- Japan: Security threatened, fears attack

- Europe: Wants money and face, caught in between

---

## V. The Global Picture Through the "Family Estate" Lens

### Role Positioning

```

China (Second Son)

|

|-- Internal relations: Taiwan (Eldest Son), Hong Kong, Singapore

|

|-- Neighbor relations:

|-- Japan (distant cousin, culturally similar)

|-- US (stranger hegemon, completely different)

|-- Europe (old aristocracy, once invaded you)

```

### Triangle Game

```

United States (Hegemon)

/ \

Ally Confrontation

/ \

Europe China

(Follower + (Challenger)

Autonomy)

\ /

\ /

Japan (Outpost)

```

### China's Dilemma

Internal problems:

- Taiwan doesn't want to return home

- Hong Kong hearts lost

- Singapore keeps distance

External problems:

- Japan anxiously confronts

- US comprehensively contains

- Europe criticizes and sanctions

Root cause:

> Economically powerful, but soft power hasn't kept pace

---

## VI. History's Mirror

### Tang Dynasty vs. Now

Tang Dynasty China:

- 🌟 Economically prosperous

- 🌟 Institutionally advanced (civil service exams)

- 🌟 Culturally brilliant (poetry, art)

- 🌟 Open and inclusive (Chang'an welcomed all nations)

- 🌟 Didn't rely on force (mainly cultural attraction)

Result:

- Japan voluntarily sent envoys

- Neighboring countries proactively learned

- True "all nations coming to court"

---

Contemporary China:

- 💰 World's second-largest economy

- 💪 Rapidly expanding military

- 🚫 Unrecognized institutions

- 🚫 Weak cultural exports

- 🚫 Aggressive diplomacy (wolf warrior)

Result:

- Neighbors are afraid

- Fewer and fewer allies

- "Friends circle" are dictatorships

---

### America's Experience

Though America is domineering, why do allies follow?

Because:

1. Institutional appeal (democracy and freedom)

2. Cultural soft power (Hollywood, Silicon Valley)

3. Economic interests (dollar, market)

4. Security guarantees (NATO, military alliances)

5. Rule-maker (though hypocritical, at least has rules)

What can China offer?

1. Economic interests (Belt and Road, infrastructure)

2. ???

Only money, no soft power.

Money can buy business, but can't buy respect.

---

## VII. Where's the Way Out?

### Internally: Resolve Family Issues

Taiwan issue:

- Can't rely only on military threats

- Must make Taiwan feel "returning home" is worthwhile

- Hong Kong's failure is the biggest lesson

Institutional reform:

- Genuine rule of law

- Freedom of speech

- Property protection

Only when you improve yourself will others respect you.

---

### Externally: Change Diplomatic Approach

Toward Japan:

- Historical issues must be resolved (needs Japan's sincere apology)

- But must also let go of hatred (like France-Germany)

- Security concerns must be understood (can't always threaten "Taiwan reunification by force")

Toward America:

- Acknowledge confrontation is long-term

- But avoid hot war

- Compete within rules framework (don't flip the table)

Toward Europe:

- This is the group that can be won over

- No "wolf warrior diplomacy"

- Improvements on human rights issues

- More open markets

---

### Fundamentally: Soft Power Building

What is soft power?

Not Confucius Institutes, not CGTN, not "telling China's story well."

Rather:

- Others proactively want to learn your system

- Others proactively want to learn your culture

- Others proactively want to immigrate to you

- Others proactively respect you

The Tang Dynasty had no "grand external propaganda," yet Japan voluntarily came to learn.

Now spending billions on "grand external propaganda," is it effective?

---

## VIII. The Most Profound Question

### What Does China Really Want?

If it's:

- "Face" (others must respect me)

- "Unification" (Taiwan must return)

- "Hegemon status" (must surpass America)

→ Then the current path is correct, keep going.

But the cost is:

- Confrontation with US, Japan, Europe

- Taiwan drifts further away

- Possible war

---

If it's:

- People's happiness

- National prosperity

- World respect

- Peaceful rise

→ Then change is needed:

- Institutional reform

- Diplomatic moderation

- Cultural exports

Benefits are:

- True great power rise

- World respect

- Long-term stability

---

### An Analogy

Pursuing a woman, two approaches:

Approach A:

"You must be with me because I have money, power, muscles. If you refuse, I'll threaten you."

Approach B:

"I'll make myself excellent, charismatic, virtuous. You'll naturally like me."

Which approach is more likely to succeed?

---

### Historical Patterns

Truly great nations never conquered the world through force, but attracted the world through civilization.

- Ancient Greece: Cultural influence on Europe for millennia

- Ancient Rome: Legal system still used today

- Tang Dynasty: All nations came to court

- America: Though domineering, has appeal

Empires built on force all collapsed:

- Mongol Empire

- Nazi Germany

- Soviet Union

---

## Conclusion

From the "family estate" perspective, China's challenges are far more complex than the Taiwan issue:

- Internal: Taiwan doesn't want to return, Hong Kong hearts lost, Singapore keeps distance

- External: Japan anxious, US containing, Europe criticizing

Root cause is singular:

> Economically powerful, but institutions, culture, and diplomacy haven't kept pace.

The Tang Dynasty's lesson:

True power isn't making neighbors fear, but making neighbors respect.

Not through "wolf warrior diplomacy," but through civilization's charm.

Not through military threats, but through institutional advancement.

Back then, Japan voluntarily sent envoys, risking their lives to come learn.

Today, who would risk their lives to come to China to learn?

This is the most profound contrast.

---

The second son has become powerful—that's good.

But if there are only fists, no charm; only economy, no culture; only threats, no attraction—

Then even with the world's largest GDP, true respect won't be won.

True great power rise isn't making the world fear you, but making the world respect you.

This is history's most important lesson for us.

(End)

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About the Author:

A professional with 34 years of experience in hotel and real estate industry, now based in Singapore. Observing the Chinese-speaking world and international relations from an architect's rational perspective on the changes of our times.