【推文】James Lindsay - Why UBI is the Tower of Babel, and what kind of disaster that means it is

連結

• 原推文1 - x.com/conceptualjame...

原文及個人翻譯

推文

Since we're all talking about Elon's fantasies of "Universal High Income" and thus about advances in AI, notably AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), let me talk about my current thoughts on the project, why it's the Tower of Babel, and what kind of disaster that means it is.

It's becoming increasingly clear that AI "in silica" isn't going to be able to truly cross the general intelligence barrier, or so I hear. Maybe it can on its own; I don't know; but it's not the intention anyway.

既然我們都在談論埃隆關於「普遍高收入」的幻想，以及因此而來的人工智慧（AI）的進步，特別是通用人工智慧（AGI），那麼讓我談談我對這個專案的當前想法，為什麼它是「巴別塔」，以及這意味著什麼樣的災難。

現在越來越清楚的是，純粹基於硅晶片的人工智慧可能無法真正突破通用智慧的界限，或者至少我聽到了這樣的說法。 也許它可以獨立完成；我不知道；但無論如何，這並不是目標。

The way AI is meant to cross the "G" barrier and truly become AGI and Superintelligence is by merging with humans. In fact, the idea of the brain-machine interface and the connection to the internet (Internet of Brains/Bodies) is the part of the project that usually doesn't get talked about as an integral piece of the plan.

Yes, that means Neuralink (plus Starlink), and, yes, I am completely aware of the good it (both of them) also can do and can bring (and are bringing already).

My read on the situation now is that merging man with machine is necessary to get over a particular intelligence barrier (probably actual generative intelligence), so our own human essence, whatever the represents in terms of intelligence or even in theological terms, if those apply, is the missing ingredient to make the machine work.

If that's the case, they're building a Tower of Babel, in Silica, and it's likely to work out the same way as in Genesis 11 (badly).

人工智慧（AI）被設想突破「通用」界限，真正成為通用人工智慧和超級智慧的方式，是通過與人類融合。事實上，腦機介面以及連線網際網路（大腦/身體網際網路）的想法，是該專案的一個重要組成部分，但通常不被提及。

是的，這意味著Neuralink（以及Starlink），是的，我完全清楚它（兩者）也可以帶來很多好處（並且已經在帶來）。

我現在對情況的理解是，將人類與機器融合是克服特定智慧障礙（可能實際上是產生式智慧）所必需的，因此我們自身的人類本質，無論它在智力或甚至是神學意義上代表什麼，都是使機器能夠執行的關鍵要素。

如果真是這樣，他們正在建造一個硅基的巴別塔，而且很可能會以《創世紀》11章中描述的方式失敗（結果會很糟糕）。

In Genesis 11, God sees man building the Tower to Heaven to make a mark for themselves and such that nothing they do will be impossible for them, so he scatters them and confuses their language (and presumably knocks the tower over or something). Taken symbolically, not just as a literal story, this tells us something important: these project result in catastrophe, destruction, scattering, confusion, and separation.

My guess here is that since one of the things AI is actually pretty good at is translating one language to another, and since Elon always says we won't have to talk after we're all an Internet of Brains and can just share thoughts as they are (YIKES!!!), we won't exactly see a scattering of languages as this project collapses. We'll see the scattering at the relevant layer of communication and its substrate.

在《創世紀》11章中，上帝看到人類建造通往天堂的巴別塔，目的是爲了彰顯自己，並使他們能夠做到任何事情，於是他將他們分散開來，並且使他們的語言混亂（並且可能推倒了這座塔或類似的事情）。從象徵意義上講，而不僅僅是字面意義上，這告訴我們一些重要的資訊：這些專案會導致災難、破壞、分散、混亂和分離。

我的猜測是，由於人工智慧實際上非常擅長將一種語言翻譯成另一種語言，並且由於埃隆總是說，在所有人都成為大腦網際網路之後，我們將不再需要說話，而是可以直接分享想法（天啊！！！），因此當這個專案崩潰時，我們不會看到語言的分散。 我們會在溝通和其底層結構相關的層面看到這種分散。

In the ancient world, we talked and languages could separate us; in the modern world, it will be the underlying mental state from which the thoughts arise. That's properly scary but seems right.

As we start going into this will-be nightmare scenario, I'm willing to bet a lot of people will, in fact, go crazy because of it. Not a little crazy. REALLY CRAZY. And in ways we've likely never seen before. Their mental states will be confused such that they cannot communicate with one another, even hooked up to the Internet of Brains where communication might really be like direct transmission of thoughts.

在古代世界，我們通過語言交流，而語言可能會將我們分隔開；而在現代世界，將會是產生這些想法的底層心理狀態。這確實令人感到恐懼，但似乎是正確的。

隨著我們開始進入這個即將到來的噩夢場景，我敢打賭很多人實際上會因為這件事而變得瘋狂。不是稍微有點瘋狂。而是真正地瘋狂。而且是以我們可能從未見過的形式。他們的心理狀態將會混亂，以至於他們無法與彼此交流，即使他們連線到了大腦網際網路，在那裡溝通可能會像直接傳輸想法一樣。

I'm given to that line in The Matrix where Agent Smith is explaining to a captured Morpheus that the first Matrix was a Utopia but the human mind rejected it. "Whole crops were lost," he says.

So that means the attempt at AGI with its likely-missing ingredient (actual intelligence, human intelligence) will itself be contaminated by minds that have gone fully bonkers and likely in really bad ways. Imagine the craziest AI hallucinations you can manifesting out in every possible pathological state a human brain can end up in, including when on drugs and such, and that's your network substrate.

So our first superintelligence is going to be superintelligent because it's built on the brains of a bunch of people who are going absolutely nuts in violently unpredictable ways, and that's the essential ingredient that lets it pass the Silica Barrier?

Woof. Not good. No bueno. A la verga!

我想到《黑客帝國》中，當特工史密斯向被捕的墨菲斯解釋說，第一個矩陣是一個烏托邦，但人類的心智拒絕了它時。「整個農作物都損失了」，他說。

這意味著，試圖創造通用人工智慧（AGI），而其可能缺失的關鍵要素（真正的智慧、人類智慧）本身就會受到那些已經完全精神錯亂的人的思想污染，而且很可能是以非常糟糕的方式。 想像一下你能想到的最瘋狂的人工智慧幻覺，在每一種可能的病態狀態下都顯現出來，包括當人們服用藥物時等等，而這就是你的網路底層結構。

因此，我們的第一個超級人工智慧之所以是超級智慧的，是因為它建立在一群人腦的基礎上，這些人正在以非常暴力和不可預測的方式變得完全瘋狂，而這正是使其能夠突破硅基障礙的關鍵要素？

天啊。 不好。 糟糕透了。 太可怕了！

That tower is coming down. The people involved will be scattered. Indeed, many will be destroyed in the process. Whole crops (of data providers) will be lost.

I don't know if they'll make something like this work in the end, but I think Genesis 11 gives us a pretty important cautionary tale on what's likely to happen.

I get it. The Tech Bros want to build a great Silicon Tower to make their mark so that they'll never be forgotten. They want to make all humans in full and perfect communication with one another at the speed of thought, such that nothing will be impossible for us.

What could possibly go wrong besides everything?

這座塔將會倒塌。 參與其中的人們將被分散開來。 事實上，很多人會在這個過程中被摧毀。 整個農作物（數據提供者）將會損失殆盡。

我不知道他們最終是否會成功地創造出類似的東西，但我認為《創世紀》11章為我們提供了一個非常重要的警示故事，講述了可能發生的事情。

我明白了。 這些科技大佬想要建造一座偉大的硅基塔，以留下他們的印記，這樣他們就不會被遺忘。 他們希望讓所有人類能夠以思想的速度進行完全和完美地交流，從而使我們能夠做到任何事情。

除了所有壞事之外，還能有什麼可能出錯呢？